Lithium battery two wheeler and scooter – market development and prospects

As an important part in alleviating global environmental and energy problems, the development process of battery two wheeler has been attached importance by governments around the world. Driven by major new energy industry countries and regions such as China, Europe, South Asia, North America, and Japan, the lithium battery two wheeler market has entered a period of rapid development.

Lithium battery two wheeler and scooter

Battery two wheeler are generally divided into three categories, namely E-bikes, electric mopeds and electric motorcycles. E-bikes are relatively light and easy to carry, and usually look similar to regular bikes with less plastic parts. Electric mopeds look more like motorcycles and have greater motor power, longer driving range and greater loading capacity than e-bikes.

The appearance of electric motorcycles is similar to that of electric mopeds, and most of the body is covered with plastic parts. Among the three categories of battery two wheeler, electric motorcycles have the largest power and loading capacity, and have a relatively powerful braking system, and the overall performance is better.

Battery scooter, also called body sense scooter, thinking scooter, positioning scooter, etc.There are mainly two categories on the market: one wheel and two wheels. Its operating principle is mainly based on a basic principle called “dynamic stability”, using the gyroscope and acceleration sensor inside the scooter body to detect changes in the posture of the scooter body, and using the servo control system to accurately drive the motor to make corresponding adjustments to maintain the balance of the system. The self-balancing scooter is a new type of green environmental protection product as a means of transportation and entertainment.

Global market of battery two wheeler

From the global market distribution two-wheeler types, in the South Asia and China markets, e-bikes and electric motorcycles are the main types. In the Europe, North America, Japan and Korean markets, E-bikes are the main battery two wheelers. Self-balancing scooters are mainly distributed in China, Europe and the United States.

From 2020 to 2022, affected by the epidemic, more and more people choose to “single ride” way of travel, especially in Europe, the demand for short-distance transportation such as battery two wheeler, battery scooters and self-balancing scooters has increased greatly, and battery two wheeler (including self-balancing scooters,the following battery two wheeler contents all include self-balancing scooters) maintains a steady growth trend in the global market. According to the data, 87 million battery two wheeler were shipped globally in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%.

Lithiumization level of global battery two wheeler

At present, the battery two wheelers in the China market are mainly electric two wheelers, and the power of the electric two wheelers is mainly lead-acid batteries. The Europe market and the Japan and Korea markets are dominated by E-bikes, and almost all E-bikes are powered by lithium batteries. In addition, the power of the self-balancing scooter is also dominated by lithium batteries.

Benefiting from the rapid development of the market and the support of governments for energy and environmental protection, lithium battery two wheelers have maintained a steady growth in the global market. GGII data shows that in 2022, the global shipments of lithium battery two wheeler and self-balancing scooter was 27.35 million units, and the lithium battery penetration rate was 31.4%. The main reason is that the lithiumization of two wheelers in the China market is less than expected, which has led to a slight decline in the global shipments of lithium battery two wheeler.

The lithiumization trend of lithium battery two wheeler is relatively certain, and there is still huge room for growth in the lithium battery two wheeler market in the future. At present, the global shipments of lithium battery two wheeler are mainly concentrated in the five major markets of China, Europe, Japan and South Korea, South Asia and North America.

China market
At present, the lithium battery two wheeler in the China market are mainly electric two wheeler. According to the survey results of GGII, by the end of 2022, the number of electric two wheeler in China has exceeded 320 million, and the current number of 95% of these battery two wheelers are using lead-acid batteries, and the ones of lithium battery two wheeler accounts for less than 5%.

In 2022, due to the sharp increase in the cost of lithium batteries, the shipments of lithium battery two wheeler in China have dropped sharply, reaching 18.35 million units (including 800 lithium battery two wheeler and 10.35 million lithium battery self-balancing scooter). GGII predicts that by 2027, China’s lithium two wheeler shipments will reach 43.5 million units, and the penetration rate of lithium battery two wheeler will reach 49.7%.

Europe market
European lithium battery two wheelers are mainly E-bike models. E-bike is defined as an electric two-wheel vehicle for city/tourism. The speed does not exceed 25 km/h and the power does not exceed 250W. The current market volume of E-bike occupies more than 95% of the lithium battery two wheeler in the entire Europe market.

GGII data shows that in 2019, the Europe lithium battery two wheeler shipments are conservatively estimated at 2.6 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. Due to the impact of the carbon neutral policy and the epidemic, the market continued the outbreak trend from 2021 to 2022 and the annual shipments reached 5.5 million units. GGII predicts that the shipment of lithium battery two wheeler in the Europe market will reach 10.5 million in 2027.

From the perspective of E-bike shipments in various European countries, Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium are the main E-bike market countries. From the perspective of population, sales volume, and per capita proportion, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium are still the main consumer markets in the European market, of which the German market accounts for more than one-third, but the Netherlands, Belgium, Spain, and Eastern Europe (Poland, etc.), the Nordic market is on the rise.

Japan & Korea market
According to the data of GGII, Japan and South Korea shipped 950,000 lithium battery two wheeler in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%. GGII predicts that in 2027, the shipments of lithium battery two wheeler in Japan and South Korea will reach 1.55 million.

North America market
Due to differences in consumption concepts in the North America market, American consumers generally believe that vehicles are means of transportation, while two wheelers are tools for sports, fitness and entertainment. Therefore, in the entire North America market, the application of lithium battery two wheeler is not as good as that in the Europe market.

Affected by the economic recovery in 2022, the annual shipments of lithium battery two wheeler in North America rise to 450,000 units. Affected by the government’s support policies for new energy, the North America lithium battery two wheeler market is expected to usher in a wave of small growth peaks. In 2023, the shipment of lithium battery two wheeler will reach 490,000 units, with an average annual growth rate of more than 20%.

South Asia market
In the South Asia market represented by India, motorcycles occupy most of the two wheeler market, while battery two wheelers and E-bikes are relatively few. Due to the impact of global new energy, the battery two wheeler market in South Asia is also gradually using lithium batteries, but the base is too small, and the overall level of lithium battery two wheeler is currently low.

According to GGII data, South Asia shipped 550,000 lithium battery two wheelers in 2022. GGII predicts that the shipment of lithium battery two wheeler in the South Asian market will reach 1.5 million in 2027.

Market size and prospects of two wheeler lithium battery

In 2022, global shipments of lithium batteries for two wheelers and self-balancing scooters were 23.6GWh, a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%. And the main reason for the slowdown is that the two-wheelers lithiumization of China market is less than expected.

GGII predicts that with the price of lithium batteries falling in 2023, the global two wheeler lithium battery will continue to grow rapidly and is expected to exceed 55GWh in 2027. The biggest driving factor is the rapid growth of lithium battery two wheeler in China, as well as in markets such as Europe and South Asia.

From the perspective of production countries, two wheeler lithium batteries are mainly concentrated in the production of China, Japan and South Korea, except for the China market is self-sufficient in domestic battery cells, other regional markets are mainly relying on Chinese companies to provide motorcycle battery pack, and Japanese and South Korean companies mainly provide battery products.

In 2022, shipments of batteries for lithium battery two wheeler and self-balancing scooters in China were 18.6GWh, a year-on-year decrease of 7%. The main reasons are:

1. Rising costs of raw material
The cost of core raw materials has risen sharply, resulting in a decline in the penetration rate of lithium battery two wheeler. In 2022, the battery grade lithium carbonate single price once again broke 500,000 RMB/ton. Lithium carbonate is the core material of all two wheeler lithium battery cathode materials, and its price increase has significant pressure on cell procurement. The two wheeler lithium battery market is dominated by lithium manganate batteries, supplemented by lithium iron phosphate batteries.

According to the 2022 average price, the current cathode cost accounts for nearly 70%, which is the highest cost ratio of materials in the battery cell. Lithium carbonate is the core cost source of lithium manganate and lithium iron phosphate, which currently accounts for more than 80% of the cost. From a penetration point of view, lithium carbonate accounts for more than 50% of the battery cell cost.

The cost pressure of the battery link is transmitted to the lithium battery two wheeler owners and end users. Taking lithium battery two wheeler commonly used battery model 4824 battery as an example, the average price of 4824 battery in 2021 was about 800-900 RMB/group, and the average price of H1 in 2022 was 1200-1400 RMB/group, which means the price increase is more than 400 RMB/group.

OEMs and end users have high price sensitivity, which directly inhibits the sales growth of lithium battery two wheeler. According to GGII analysis, price is still the most critical factor affecting the penetration of lithium batteries in the field of two wheelers.

2.Reduced demand in sharing markets
The demand in the sharing market dominated by lithium batteries has decreased, resulting in a decline in sales of lithium battery two wheeler. Investment in shared motorcycles was extremely hot in 2020. Driven by shared motorcycles, the demand for lithium batteries for two wheelers has soared, accounting for about 40% of China’s total shipments of lithium batteries for two wheelers.

In 2021, most regions in China began to tighten the regional management of motorcycles. The promotion of shared motorcycles encountered policy resistance, and the expansion of the entire industry slowed down rapidly. In 2022, it was basically be at a standstill. Except for a few shared bicycle maintenance orders, new orders significantly reduced or even disappeared, making the demand for lithium battery two wheeler decline.

Nevertheless, the lithiumization of two wheelers is still the general trend. On one hand, benefiting from the mandatory implementation of the policy, the scale of purchasing lithium batteries by OEMs to replace lead-acid continues to expand, and the C-end demand continues to maintain positive growth, and there is still a lot of room for replacement in the future.

On the other hand, the cost of lithium batteries continues to decrease, reducing the cost of using lithium battery two wheelers. At the same time, the lithium battery self-balancing scooter is still in the stage of rapid development, and the demand for lithium batteries is showing a rising trend. In summary, the overall market will gradually resume its growth momentum in 2023, and it is expected that the shipment of lithium batteries for two wheelers and self-balancing scooters will reach 45.5GWh in 2027.

The main two wheeler lithium battery company introduction

Phylion
Phylion was founded in December 2003 with a registered capital of 321 million RMB. At present, Phylion has launched a global industrial layout, with two production bases in Suzhou and Chuzhou, and two subsidiaries in Europe and India.

The products are mainly used in new energy fields such as electric bicycles, electric vehicles, commercial tricycles, low-speed four wheelers, and communication energy storage. In the field of light electric wheelers, Phylion lithium batteries are exported to 22 countries and regions including Germany and France. The company supports mainstream light wheeler enterprises such as Yadea, Aima, Xinri, Tailg, Ninebot, and Lvyuan.

Narada
Narada was founded in September 1994 and listed in 2010. The company’s lithium battery products are mainly used in energy storage. Based on the industry-leading energy storage system technology, the company continues to promote the large-scale promotion and implementation of commercial energy storage projects, and distributes energy storage on the user side and distributed energy storage on the grid side.

The company established a two wheeler business department in 2018, and formally established a civil power lithium battery business department in 2019, responsible for the development of two wheeler lithium battery business.

Tianneng Saft
Established in 2004 with a registered capital of 226 million RMB and an area of 330 acres, Tianeng Saft is a subsidiary of Tianeng Power. The company is mainly engaged in the research and development, production and sales of lithium batteries, which are used in various fields such as new energy vehicles, electric wheelers, communications, lighting, electronic appliances and other specific industries.

Greenway
Founded in 2005 and listed in 2021, Greenway has multiple industrial bases, including three pack factories such as Greenway Battery and Greenway New Energy, and K-Tech Energy cell plant, as well as an office in Suzhou, East China, and a European office in Belgium. With a full range of intelligent manufacturing and service system from cell research and development and supporting, BMS research and development, to SMT, battery pack structure design, battery assembly and production, to provide customers with complete lithium battery solutions. Products are used in electric bicycles, electric motorcycles, electric scooters and other light wheelers.

Ampace Tech
Ampace Tech was established in May 2021 and entered the two wheeler lithium battery market with the electric short-term transportation lithium battery solution. In 2021, ATL and CATL jointly invested 14 billion RMB in household energy storage and two wheeler markets. In terms of cooperative customers, the flagship models of many well-known electric wheeler brands, including Yadea, Ninebot and Super Soco, one of the top 10 electric motorcycle manufacturers in the world, are using Ampace Tech’s lithium battery products.