4680 and 46 series battery are accelerating mass production

What is certain is that in 2023 Tesla 4680 battery will enter mass production, in addition, EVE, Panasonic battery, CATL and other companies also earlier in the layout of large cylindrical cells, then, in 2023 large cylindrical battery is expected to start playing a more obvious role in the electric vehicle market.

According to the forecast, 2023 will be the first year of mass production of 4680 batteries, and the global installed capacity of 4680 batteries is expected to exceed 20GWh, and will exceed 100GWh in 2024.

BMW Group’s layout in large cylindrical batteries

In addition to Tesla, this year BMW has also determined the route of large cylindrical batteries. In September this year, BMW Group announced that it will be the first to use cylindrical cells in its models from 2025 onwards.

According to BMW Group, the new cylindrical cells have a standard diameter of 46mm and two different heights. The industry speculation is that it may be 4695 and 46120 series large cylindrical batteries. The new cylindrical battery pack allow energy density to increase by more than 20%, range to increase by up to 30% and charging speed to increase by up to 30% compared to the current square batteries. Based on the current battery materials market environment, the sixth generation of batteries compared to the fifth generation of products, the cost can be reduced by up to 50%.

The BMW Group Director for Purchasing and Supplier Network said BMW will work with its partners to establish two core plants in China, Europe, and the North American Free Trade Area, with an annual capacity of 20 GWh for all six core plants.

The BMW Group has identified three suppliers of large cylindrical batteries, namely CATL, EVE and Envision, of which CATL and EVE will safeguard the BMW Group’s cylindrical battery needs in China and Europe respectively, while Envision will mainly meet the BMW Group’s large cylindrical battery needs in the North American market.

Driven by international enterprises such as Tesla and BMW as well as the continuous investment of battery enterprises, more car companies are expected to lay out large cylindrical batteries. It is expected that the global installed capacity of 46 series large cylindrical batteries is expected to reach 255GWh in 2025, the global market penetration rate can be raised to 20%, and the proportion of cylindrical batteries in the global power battery market will be significantly increased.

Tesla’s 4680 production line initially had a yield rate of only 20%, but in the first half of this year, the yield rate of small batch 4680 cells produced in its California factory reached 92%. Now, Tesla has raised its large cylindrical battery capacity to 868,000 cells per week, indicating that its production line yield has reached a stable level, and its production capacity is expected to continue to set new records in 2023.

Capacity layout of other battery companies

In addition to Tesla, battery companies’ production capacity on large cylinders is also expected to be rapidly released in 2023. In June, LG New Energy announced a 580 billion won investment to expand its 9 GWh 4680 cylindrical battery capacity at its second factory in South Korea, with the project expected to start mass production in the second half of 2023. In addition, LG New Energy also announced a KRW 1.7 trillion investment in a wholly-owned power battery plant in Arizona, USA, with a planned annual production capacity of 11 GWh cylindrical batteries, which is expected to start production in the second half of 2024.

Panasonic sent samples of the 4680 battery to Tesla in June of this year. The CEO of Panasonic’s energy division said Panasonic expects to achieve mass production of 4680 batteries in Japan in May 2023, and the plant is expected to eventually transition to the production of 4680 batteries. It is worth noting that in March this year, Panasonic’s Energy announced the construction of a new production facility at its Wakayama plant in Japan for the production of 4680 batteries, with a planned capacity of 10GWh for both production lines.

Chinese battery company EVE is about to complete its first 20GWh large cylindrical battery project in Hubei, China, which will be launched in 2021. Sources said that the cumulative output of EVE’s large cylindrical fully automated pilot line has reached 500,000 cells, with an overall excellent rate of 92%, overcoming a number of technical difficulties.

In addition, on December 15, 2022, EVE released a new generation of 4695 ev battery cell with energy density of 350Wh/kg, capable of 9min ultra-fast charging and 500-1000km range, 30% increase in manufacturing efficiency and 50% reduction in manufacturing cost. According to the plan, EVE’s total capacity of large cylindrical cells will exceed 100GWh in 2025.